The Fourth Quarter Begins
It seems like last week I was still sporting shorts and flip-flops, yet here we are fully ensconced in fall with winter just around the corner. As we focus on Thanksgiving and gratitude, I am thankful for the strength of the Twin Cities housing market.
The cold months may be the slowest time of the year, but partly in thanks to historically low mortgage rates, housing demand remains strong while home values continue to rise. Buyers should take notice and not let the cold weather stop them from following their dream of homeownership.
The Story of Low Inventory and Strong Demand Continues
If you are looking for a home at the lower price points, you do face competition. There are still not enough homes to satisfy the hunger for homeownership. Although we saw a 3.8 percent increase in new listings compared to October of last year, inventory fell short by 5.8 percent. At the higher-priced end of the market, it is either balanced or leaning in favor of the buyer.
The trend for rising home values began in 2011 and continues. For the month of October, sellers enjoyed a 5.7 percent increase in the median sale...
The End of the Third Quarter
Can you believe summer is over, and we are firmly ensconced in fall? Halloween may be right around the corner, but I’m happy to say there is nothing scary about the Twin Cities housing market. Just the opposite.
Although we now head into the slowest time of the year for real estate, currently we are seeing lots of buying and selling activity. This activity is partly due to a dip in mortgage interest rates and a carryover of strong demand for housing.
Currently, you will see fewer homes for sale. However, there are fewer buyers, as well. There seems to be less urgency, generally speaking, allowing buyers to take a deep breath before deciding to make a purchase offer on a home. So if you have been on the fence about to buy or not to buy, this may be a great time to jump into the market.
The Continuing Saga of Low Inventory
I’m tired of saying it, and likewise, you are tired of hearing it, but lack of affordable inventory of homes is holding back an otherwise vibrant and robust housing market. At the lower price tiers, demand still outstrips supply with inventory falling 5.6 percent from September of 2018 with the most significant declines in prices below $250,000....
July Kicks Off the 3rd Quarter
There are currently numerous factors that affect the housing market. However, right now more than anything, it is the consistent lack of homes available for buyers in the lower pricing tiers. This fact holds true both in the Twins and in most markets across the nation.
It’s significant that while home values are still increasing, it is at a slower rate more closely matching income and wage growth. While you may be frowning if you are thinking about selling your home in the future, the alignment is healthy for the market. We all knew that sharply escalating prices for homes could not continue indefinitely.
Housing Market Trends Consistent
While we continue to see constraints on available homes for sale in the first-time buyer level, the market is becoming more balanced as we move up to higher price ranges. So sellers are still enjoying a market that favors them under $500,000.
Meanwhile, lower interest rates are helping to continue to make housing affordable in spite of the rising prices. Even though new listings were up 1.8 percent over July of 2018, inventory levels in the Twin Cities fell 4.4 percent. In spite of the fact, demand remains strong with closed sales up 4.5 percent and pending sales up 3.2 percent.
Although prices are not rising as quickly and steeply, the median selling price was up 5.9 percent over July of last year and up 7 percent as a rolling 12-month...
Twin Cities Housing Market Overview
As we look at June and the end of the second quarter, we observe a continuing trend of a more equitable and viable real estate market emerging. We also continue to enjoy strong housing market performance in part due to low unemployment, strong retail sales and the longest US economic expansion in history.
Overall, the dynamics of the market have not changed noticeably this year. Although new listings fell by 3.1 percent when compared to last June, the median sale price increased by 7.2 percent while days on the market flat-lined at 40. We are slowly approaching balance in the price range of $350K to $500K, but certainly not there yet. When we go above that range, we do reach a balance between buyer and seller. The highest price range is a buyer's market. Meanwhile, back in lower price land, inventory is scarce. I know, I know. You have been hearing this story for a long time now.
The High’s and Low’s of the Market
Looking at June of this year compared to 2018, new listings are down 3.1 percent. That decrease also brought pending sales down 2.9 percent and inventory levels down 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, the Median sales price increased by 7.2 percent, which is causing sellers to smile. Closed sales decreased 8.2 percent as did a percentage of list price received slightly by 0.3 percent. Time...
Minneapolis-St. Paul Housing Market Overview
As we look at the middle month of the spring housing market, we observe a trend towards a more balanced and sustainable real estate landscape. With the fed holding steady on interest rates and even suggesting it may lower them, the concerns over rising costs of mortgages are behind us.
The economy, although not growing as rapidly as in previous years, is holding steading and stocks are performing well. All these factors create an atmosphere of consumer confidence in the economy. The real estate market responds well to these conditions.
Although the inventory of homes is rising in the higher pricing tiers, in the lower first-time buyer levels supply remains constrained. The current situation is great for sellers, but for buyers, it is still no bed of roses trying to break into the market and buy a home. It’s not surprising that we see fewer sales at this end of the market.
The Market Ups and Downs
Comparing May of last year to the current year, new listings are up 2.4 percent. We’ll take it! The Median sales price gained 5.2 percent. While closed sales ticked up 3 percent, pending sales sunk 1.8 percent. Homes spent less time on the market, down 4.3 percent. We also see a decline of 0.2 in the percentage of sale price received, although it is still sitting at 100 percent, which gives sellers little reason to complain.
Minneapolis-St. Paul Big Picture
The Spring Housing Market is in play. Prices are on the rise as inventory levels continue to decline. Hopeful buyers in the lower price range are jumping on desirable properties hoping their offers rise to the top of the heap.
Months supply of inventory is improving in the mid-price housing range. We see steady sales activity in the higher price ranges while in the lower tiers buyers are still finding that landing a deal on a home to be a challenge especially for desirable homes in sought after locations.
What’s Up and What’s Down
Compare new listings to April of last year; we see an increase across the 16 county Twin Cities region of 4.5%. Closed sales were down 6.9% while the median sale price rose 5.2%. Pending sales were also down 1.1% and inventory levels 1.2% lower.
April weather was wintery at times, which discouraged buyer traffic and slowed sales. This trend was seen across Minneapolis as well as other parts of the nation. Higher prices, less affordability, and low inventory combined forces to dampen sales.
Let’s Dig a Little Deeper into the Housing Stats
While the median sale...
Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Overview
As we move ever closer to spring, it looks like the prime season for housing is going to be hot. Buyers in the lower pricing tiers are currently getting a sneak peek in the challenges they will face in their quest to become homeowners.
When we compare new listings for February 2018 to this past month, we see a decrease of 14% which is not good news for buyers. However, I would be remiss not to point out that weatherwise, February was a month characterized by lots of snowfall and bitter cold, which tends to put a damper on real estate activity.
What’s Rising and What’s Falling
As we compare February of this year to 2018, we see that closed sales were up 4.0 percent, the percentage of list price received down 0.3, and the median sale price of $265,500 up 6.2 percent. Meanwhile, pending sales, the predictor of upcoming closed sales was down 7.4 percent.
The February Supply Story
We find new listings in February were down 14.3 percent from last year, and inventory levels were lower by 5.9 percent putting the month's supply at 1.6. Days spent on the market were flat.
The condo segment was the property type that saw the most price gains with a 10 percent increase — homes priced between $190,001...
Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Data
As we say adios to 2018 and move into the new year, expectations include some long-awaited changes. The last half of the year we saw increases in new listings, decreases in sales, and median sales prices on homes rise more slowly.
The increases we are experiencing in no way is enough to balance the market at the lower pricing tiers. However, first-time buyers and downsizing boomers will begin to find more home buying options in the coming year. That fact alone will make buyers smile.
A Look at December Housing Numbers
Looking at a comparison of December 2018 to the same time last year, we see new listings up 3.5 percent, closed sales down 9.9 percent, list price received down 0.2 percent, and the median sale price of $258,000 up 4 percent. Pending sales showed a decline of 3.3 percent, while the month’s supply of inventory rose 13.3 percent. Days on the market decreased by 6.6 percent.
What story do these numbers tell us about the housing market in Minneapolis and Saint Paul? Pretty good news. We are finally starting to see more housing choices at lower pricing levels. Sellers are more flexible when they receive less than full price offers. This situation takes some pressure off of buyers.
Sellers also have reason to smile. Property values continue to rise with median sales prices up 4% over December of 2017. Additionally, sales of homes are still brisk as we see days on the market drop to 57 from last year’s...
Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Overview
As we approach years’ end, we see some subtle changes in the Twin Cities Metro housing market. The increase in inventory of homes for sale was10.5 percent over last month giving home buyers something to rejoice. This inventory boost by is by no means enough to bring the market into balance but does bring us closer. For consumers who have been trying to buy a home for several months, it was welcome news.
What’s Up and What’s Down
As we compare November of this year to November 2017, we find new listings up 12.6 percent, closed sales down 0.9 percent, the percentage of list price received down 0.1, and the median sale price of $265,150 up 8.2 percent. Meanwhile, pending sales were down 5.2 percent, inventory levels rose 2.3 percent with months supply up 10.5 percent. Days on the market fell 7.1 percent.
So while inventory is increasing and sales are decreasing, we are seeing more price reductions and fewer deals closing for full price offers. Although housing prices are still higher than last year, they appear to be slowing down. Properties for sale are still spending less time on the market than last year, an indication that demand is still robust, and buyers are scooping up homes quickly....
The Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Market Overview
As we look at the Twin Cities Housing Market Statistics for the first month of the final quarter of 2018 the one thing that hasn’t changed for months is the shortage of properties for sale in the lower end of the market. With so few homes that fit their budget, coupled with rising home prices and interest rates, would-be buyers continue to struggle with fulfilling their dream of ownership. Homes at this price range are still selling quickly, but we are finally starting to see that shift we have been talking about, in market conditions overall as we look at narrowing gaps in year over year data for sales, inventory, and price.
What’s Up Doc?
As we compare October of this year to October 2017, we find new listings up 9.2 percent, closed sales rose 3.4 percent, the percentage of list price received up 0.2, and the median sale price of $265,000 up 8.6 percent. Meanwhile, pending sales were down 1.7 percent, inventory levels dropped 2.2 percent, days on the market fell 7.7 percent. In summary, in the Twin Cities 16 county metro at least, we are still experiencing fewer homes on the market taking less time to sell with prices even on an upward trajectory.
What About the Economy?
Our local economy remains strong. The ...
The Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Market
Some say there are indications in the September housing stats that the market might be starting a shift towards balance. New listings increased 5.9 percent compared to September of last year. However, when we look at months supply of inventory that was down 3.4 percent. So what does this mean?
Let’s keep in mind that although we see balance in the market pricing tier for $500,000 and above, inventory levels in all other price segments are not even close to approaching balance which is a five to six month level of homes for sale. If you are one of those hoping to break into the housing market, your choices are limited with desirable properties selling like lightning going through butter.
Probing into the data, we see that median sales prices are still higher than last year by 6.5 percent when we look at month to month and 7.7 percent over last year when we compare the year over year data. Closed sales are down 5.8 percent and pending down 1.8 percent with properties spending 16 percent less time to sell.
Interest rates are bobbing around the 5 percent rate for mortgages which, combined with higher prices of homes may be sidelining some buyers and forcing others to rethink their home buying strategies. These numbers tell me demand is still strong....
The Minneapolis-St Paul Housing Market Overview
As we look at the end of the summer real estate season, things have not changed very much. We see new listings up 7.6 percent over August of last year, which is a bright spot. However, for first-time home buyers, the story is still one of the limited housing choices facing continued strong demand. The situation when we look at listings under $300,000 is still critical regarding supply. The higher we go up the price tiers, the more balance we see. Properties priced from $500,000 up to $1,000,000, offer a more balanced market in which buyers have more options compared to the over $1,000,000, strata, which is a buyers market.
Looking deeper into the data gives us some reason to be optimistic but cautiously so. Even though we saw an increase in new listings, inventory levels fell 8 percent from last year. Pending sales were down 2.9 percent and closed sales ticked slightly upward at 0.2 percent over the same time last year. Home values continue to move upward to the tune of 6.3 percent while spending less time on the market. Buyers at the lower price range are making full price offers or engage in bidding wars to close a deal.
New Construction in the Metro
July 2018 Snapshot – Twin Cities Housing
As we look at the data for July, we see the reason for buyers to be a bit more optimistic. Although this is still a market that favors sellers at price ranges under $500,000, we did see an increase of 4.1 percent in new listings when compared to July of last year. However, buyers should hold off popping the cork on that bottle of champagne because it is sellers that have a reason to celebrate with the median sale price up 6.6 percent over the same time last year. Pending sales were up 0.4 percent and closed transactions were flat with days on the market falling 17.4 percent and inventory levels down 13.4 percent.
Although we hear the terms “housing market bubble” and “real estate market shift” being bandied about by analysts, economic indicators may be pointing to a slowdown but not a bursting bubble. Past the middle of the year and heading into the end of summer we continue to see record low unemployment and the longest running bull market in history, in spite of trade wars and rumblings about impeachment. While we may be wise to pay attention to the former, history proves the latter will have little or no effect on stocks, housing or the economy in general. ...
June 2018 Snapshot – Twin Cities Housing
As we close out the second quarter of the year and head into summer nothing much has changed regarding the ups and downs of Minneapolis-Saint Paul housing stats. Anyone who has been following the housing market in the Twin Cities will not be surprised by the June data. Inventory of homes continues to decline, ditto closed sales, pending sales, and days on the market. What’s up? The median sale price continues to rise. The constraint on sales is a reflection of low supply alone while demand remains strong.
We are halfway into the year with a strong economy and a real estate market that is responding accordingly. Consumers continue to have confidence and a positive outlook for the future. With unemployment at all-time lows and wages rising, home buyers have a reason to be optimistic. Even with interest rates inching upward, demand for homes remains steady.
On the supply side, builders are shifting resources from rental units to single family new construction. Sellers are also considering this may be the best year to make their move and listings are expected to increase accordingly. Things are looking rosy, and we give a thumbs up to the rest...
The Twin Cities Housing April 2018 Snapshot
I’m not going to lie to you; housing inventory is at a new all-time low. However, we do have a reason for optimism as new listing numbers are improving. Let’s also keep in mind that the early part of April felt more like January this year, with significant snowfall and low temperatures which may have held some potential sellers in winter hibernation mode. Still, sellers and builders are seeing a continued strong economy and are encouraged by a market poised to bestow significant financial gains.
For buyers, this market is still certainly challenging. Home values continue to rise while days on the market are fewer. The median sale price for April was $266,000 up 8.6 percent and days on the market fell 10.2 percent compared to April of last year which drives home the fact that buyers do not have the luxury of dawdling when it comes to offers. Additionally, buyers now have rising interest rates to contend with as well.
Twin Cities Economy and Housing Market is Strong
The Twin Cities Housing Market Snapshot
Many consider March to be the kick-off month for the busiest Real Estate season, spring. The market experienced a slight cooling with pending and closed sales both down. Interest rates have climbed and been hovering around 4.5% which is the highest they have been since 2013. Buyers may be taking a breath, and holding back again to re-evaluate and rethink their strategy. They may be considering the options of paying more each month or settling for less house.
Still, days on the market continue to decline, homes are still being sold at asking price or above, and the median sale price up 9.8% over last year. Inventory of homes, however, continues to shrink. Inventory declined 26.1%. Sellers continue to play it coy with new listings also down 17.5%. These numbers seem to indicate that the slowdown in sales is more the result of low supply rather than a lack of enthusiasm on the demand side of the equation.
The good news is that April is looking better in terms...
Not a Market for the Fainthearted
Looking at the housing market in the Twin Cities for February we are going to be focusing on four factors; an ever-shrinking supply of inventory, declining home sales, a consistently upward trend of median sales prices, and rising interest rates. The market activity we are seeing here pretty much reflects what is happening across the nation.
While we might not expect prices to climb when sales fall, this downward trend is more a result of seriously limited inventory levels coupled with strong demand. There are simply too many buyers chasing too few homes and for a nervous buyer, this may be situation impossible.
The Market in the Twin Cities is Starving for Listings
New listings declined 8% over February of last year while inventory levels dropped 23% putting the supply of homes at 1.5 months. At the same time, the median sales price of homes in the Twin Cities metro rose 12.7% to $250,000. This rise in prices is partly a reflection of bidding wars on desirable properties where supply is so limited.
The same theme of the last 2 years continues with a vengeance: ready, willing, well-qualified buyers who desperately want to become homeowners being thwarted because there just not enough listings to go around.
What Rising Interest Rates Mean for Twin Cities Housing
We have long talked about...
January Twin Cities Housing Inventory Sinks Lower
We are now several years into a housing market where buyer demand is strong and inventory of homes for sale is limited and ever shrinking. This buying mania has been fueled largely by a strong economy with low unemployment, a robust stock market, and historically low mortgage interest rates. In addition, the high cost of renting has made owning a home the best option in the Twin Cities, as well as a wise financial decision. It was the strong incentive many first time home buyers needed to get off the fence and pursue the American dream of homeownership. And chase that dream they did!
Buying vs Renting Pros and Cons
We just capped off a record-breaking year for real estate. The story for 2017 was powerful across the nation. In the Twin Cities, the median sales price reached an all-time high. Closed sales broke a twelve-year record high even with inventory levels at a 15 year low. There were lots of reasons for sellers to celebrate. Homes for sale spent less time on the market with full price offers the norm. The market was rocking and tenacious buyers were the rocket fuel that propelled it.
As we look at the first month of the brand new year, January is about supply or I should say, the...
December Housing Inventory Took a Nosedive as Home Values Soared
The relentless story of happy sellers and frustrated buyers continues. This was especially true in December. Inventory levels plummeted 27.5% over last December and month’s supply dipped to 31.6%. With the ever-shrinking availability of homes to purchase under $500K, the dream of homeownership remains elusive for many first time buyers.
Although mortgage interest rates remained steady at about 4% in the last half of the year, the high demand coupled with low inventory situation caused median sales prices to rise higher. This forced some buyers to adjust their expectations of how much house they could afford.
While year-end market conditions were a nemesis for buyers, sellers had a lot of reasons to celebrate. Homes spent less time on the market with full price offers the norm. Bidding wars on very desirable homes brought in offers above ask price.
November Twin Cities Hot Housing Market
The end of the year fast approaches and we are almost there. The theme of the story for 2017 has been one of a strong sellers’ market and relentless buyer demand especially in the first time home-buyers price range. It has remained constant through 11 months despite rising interest rates, political turbulence, and a tax overhaul whose effects on the housing market are still uncertain.
Even though the 30-year mortgage interest rate just surged to a five-month high for the last week of December at 3.99%, it is still lower than last year at the same time and a historic bargain. The Minneapolis-St. Paul business community continues to thrive economically and with the third lowest unemployment rate in the nation, an abundance of jobs consumer confidence remains high and continues to support a strong housing market.
Delving deeper into the numbers for November of this year vs. November 2016, find new listings 6.7% lower, inventories 24.1% lower with a months supply of inventory at 1.8. Still, buyers persisted and closed on 4595 homes this year for an increase of 3.8% and pending sales,...